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Renewable Energy Certificates

 

Wind and solar power is not intrinsically commercially competitive with fossil sourced energy in Australia. This is due to the very high up-front capital cost of the equipment required to capture the energy and the intermittent nature of the energy resource; so that the equipment is typically generating revenue for less than a third of the time. In addition there is a point at which peak energy delivery begins to exceed demand at different times, requiring equipment to be turned off even though the energy source is available; for example it is windy or sunny when consumers don't want the energy.

 

In Australia wind generated electricity, and to a lesser extent solar, is made economically viable by a system of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) that subsidise renewable energy producers.

 

RECs have been established to support the National Mandatory Renewable Energy Target (MRET) to 2030: ‘to encourage additional generation of electricity from renewable energy sources and achieve reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.’ It aims to meet a renewable energy target of 20% by 2020.

 
The National RET scheme:
 
  • places a legal liability on wholesale purchasers of electricity to proportionally contribute to an additional 17,150 gigawatt hours (GWh) of renewable energy per year by 2012 increasing annually until it reaches 45,000 GWh in 2020
  • sets the framework for both the supply and demand of renewable energy certificates (RECs) via a REC market.

 A REC is an electronic, tradable commodity similar to a share certificate as it represents a unit of value and may be traded for financial return. 1MWh of energy equals 1 REC. Electricity wholesalers need to buy RECs that are created by the accredited generators of electricity from renewable energy resources. Each calendar year wholesalers are required to surrender a number of registered RECs equal to their liability for the previous year; at an increasing rate (renewable power percentage (RPP)) each year.

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Following a politically driven debacle that gave small rooftop solar installations a fivefold REC allowance and temporally destroyed the REC market, in February 2010, the Australian Government announced changes to the national RET scheme, separating small-scale and large-scale renewable supply.  From January 2011, the scheme exists in two parts, the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) and the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET). The SRES is a fixed price, unlimited-quantity scheme available only to small scale technologies such as solar water heating.

The LRET will retain the REC's existing floating price, fixed-quantity structure, and will be available only to large-scale power generation, such as wind, solar, biomass and geothermal energy. The LRET target will be 4,000 GWh less than the previous national RET scheme target, requiring the scheme to deliver 41,000 GWh of renewable energy by 2020.

The price of a REC fluctuates with supply and demand.

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The present price means that consumers presently pay around double the mean energy price for 'renewable' wind and solar energy. This cost of subsidising each MWh of renewable energy is passed on directly to the electricity consumer in their electricity bill.

 

Notwithstanding the subsidy the available, the economic wind resource in NSW is too limited and too small for wind to contribute more than a few per cent to projected NSW electricity needs. Consequently NSW wholesalers buy more RECs from Tasmania and South Australia than locally, even though the power can't practically be delivered to their customers due to very significant transmission costs and losses.

As will be seen later in this paper a significant issue is that the 20% renewables by 2020 target is a politically set  'stretch goal' - like 'no child to live in poverty by...'  It is extremely ambitious and very likely to be unachievable using current technology. 

It is important to realise that under the REC mechanism the price will continue to rise until the mandatory targets for renewable energy are met irrespective of the technical difficulties in delivering this power.  Thus if the proposed 'stretch'  targets are made mandatory it is quite possible for the subsidy to make the cost of renewable energy many times that of conventional , or nuclear, energy.  

 

As the REC price rises it might be reasonable to expect a significant increase in present wind generation in eastern Australia before resource limitations distance and demand management issues begin to limit further expansion. This additional capacity is more likely to be located in Victoria, Tasmania and SA than in NSW or Queensland. 
 
As discussed in more detail later, owners of existing accredited renewable power stations that are not located in new, more marginal locations, could then expect very substantial 'wind-fall' profits as the REC price is driven upwards.  Most hydro-power predated the REC arrangements and is excluded for these very reasons. 
 
To overcome this difficulty it was hoped that the REC scheme would be short lived and be replaced by a cap-and-trade emissions  trading scheme (ETS).  But this now appears to be politically untenable.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Travel

Greece and Türkiye 2024

 

 

 

 

In May 2024 Wendy and I travelled to Europe and after a string of flights landed in Berlin. By now we are quite familiar with that city and caught public transport to Emily and Guido's apartment to be greeted by our grandchildren and their parents.  I have previously reported on their family, so, suffice it to say, we had a very pleasant stay and even got out to their country place again.

From Berlin we flew to Greece and had an initial few days in Athens, before returning to Berlin, then back to Greece, a week later, to join a cruise of the Greek islands and Türkiye (just one port).

At the end of the cruise we spent a self-guided week on Crete. We finished our European trip with a week in Bulgaria, followed by a week in the UK, before flying back to Sydney.

Read more: Greece and Türkiye 2024

Fiction, Recollections & News

Memory

 

 

 

Our memories are fundamental to who we are. All our knowledge and all our skills and other abilities reside in memory. As a consequence so do all our: beliefs; tastes; loves; hates; hopes; and fears.

Yet our memories are neither permanent nor unchangeable and this has many consequences.  Not the least of these is the bearing memory has on our truthfulness.

According to the Macquarie Dictionary a lie is: "a false statement made with intent to deceive; an intentional untruth; a falsehood - something intended or serving to convey a false impression".  So when we remember something that didn't happen, perhaps from a dream or a suggestion made by someone else, or we forget something that did happen, we are not lying when we falsely assert that it happened or truthfully deny it.

The alarming thing is that this may happen quite frequently without our noticing. Mostly this is trivial but when it contradicts someone else's recollections, in a way that has serious legal or social implications, it can change lives or become front page news.

Read more: Memory

Opinions and Philosophy

Australia's $20 billion Climate strategy

 

 

 

We can sum this up in a word:

Hydrogen

According to 'Scotty from Marketing', and his mate 'Twiggy' Forrest, hydrogen is the, newly discovered panacea, to all our environmental woes:
 

The Hon Scott Morrison MP - Prime Minister of Australia

"Australia is on the pathway to net zero. Our goal is to get there as soon as we possibly can, through technology that enables and transforms our industries, not taxes that eliminate them and the jobs and livelihoods they support and create, especially in our regions.

For Australia, it is not a question of if or even by when for net zero, but importantly how.

That is why we are investing in priority new technology solutions, through our Technology Investment Roadmap initiative.

We are investing around $20 billion to achieve ambitious goals that will bring the cost of clean hydrogen, green steel, energy storage and carbon capture to commercial parity. We expect this to leverage more than $80 billion in investment in the decade ahead.

In Australia our ambition is to produce the cheapest clean hydrogen in the world, at $2 per kilogram Australian.

Mr President, in the United States you have the Silicon Valley. Here in Australia we are creating our own ‘Hydrogen Valleys’. Where we will transform our transport industries, our mining and resource sectors, our manufacturing, our fuel and energy production.

In Australia our journey to net zero is being led by world class pioneering Australian companies like Fortescue, led by Dr Andrew Forrest..."

From: Transcript, Remarks, Leaders Summit on Climate, 22 Apr 2021
 

 

Read more: Australia's $20 billion Climate strategy

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