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Other Climatic Concerns

 

As indicated at the outset the climate of the planet is determined by the interplay of a large number of factors. Present generation computer simulations do not take all of these factors into account and, like all encompassing economic models, have very little predictive accuracy. It is therefore possible that climate changes due to human activity might be for the better, offsetting some otherwise negative natural change.

Climate change has the potential to affect our ability to grow food through flood or drought, to destroy productive land through wind, water, ice or salt build-up and to cause increasing levels of extinction of plants and animals. Ocean warming and higher sea levels, due to expansion and ice melting, result in the inundation of coastal areas and low islands.  The opposite effects may result if the Earth becomes colder. 

Governments need to develop strategies for dealing with the effects of climate change.  Like all disaster plans these need to consider all the reasonable short and medium term contingencies but to leave longer-term considerations to future generations. 

For example if there is a reasonable expectation of higher sea levels within a few years, local planning should prohibit further development in areas subject to potential inundation. Similarly a reasonable expectation of higher levels of storm damage may require building codes to be revisited the storm proofing of emergency services and communications and that some areas of high exposure are avoided.  A large number of such contingencies (100 year floods, dam safety, bridge design and so on) could be drawn up.

Of particular concern to NSW is the impact of more or less rainfall across the State.  More consistent rain in the northern or western parts of the State could be beneficial to agriculture but if this has higher variability it could have negative impact without management.  Greater water use may increase salination and increased land degradation.  Rainfall change may require tree planting or other interventions to correct for rapid climatic change.  Conversely, if Central NSW becomes dryer water management will become even more critical.

 

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Travel

Ireland

 

 

 

 

In October 2018 we travelled to Ireland. Later we would go on to England (the south coast and London) before travelling overland (and underwater) by rail to Belgium and then on to Berlin to visit our grandchildren there. 

The island of Ireland is not very big, about a quarter as large again as Tasmania, with a population not much bigger than Sydney (4.75 million in the Republic of Ireland with another 1.85 million in Northern Ireland).  So it's mainly rural and not very densely populated. 

It was unusually warm for October in Europe, including Germany, and Ireland is a very pleasant part of the world, not unlike Tasmania, and in many ways familiar, due to a shared language and culture.

Read more: Ireland

Fiction, Recollections & News

Wedding

 

 

Jordan Baker and Jeff Purser were married on Saturday 3rd of December 2011. The ceremony took place on the cliff top at Clovelly.

Read more: Wedding

Opinions and Philosophy

Manufacturing in Australia

 

 

 

This article was written in August 2011 after a career of many years concerned with Business Development in New South Wales Australia. I've not replaced it because, while the detailed economic parameters have changed, the underlying economic arguments remain the same (and it was a lot of work that I don't wish to repeat) for example:  

  • between Oct 2010 and April 2013 the Australian dollar exceeded the value of the US dollar and that was seriously impacting local manufacturing, particularly exporters;
  • as a result, in November 2011, the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) reduced the cash rate (%) from 4.75 to 4.5 and a month later to 4.25; yet
  • the dollar stayed stubbornly high until 2015, mainly due to a favourable balance of trade in commodities and to Australia's attraction to foreign investors following the Global Financial Crisis, that Australia had largely avoided.

 

 

2011 introduction:

Manufacturing viability is back in the news.

The loss of manufacturing jobs in the steel industry has been a rallying point for unions and employers' groups. The trigger was the announcement of the closure of the No 6 blast furnace at the BlueScope plant at Port Kembla.  This furnace is well into its present campaign and would have eventually required a very costly reline to keep operating.  The company says the loss of export sales does not justify its continued operation. The  remaining No 5 blast furnace underwent a major reline in 2009.  The immediate impact of the closure will be a halving of iron production; and correspondingly of downstream steel manufacture. BlueScope will also close the aging strip-rolling facility at Western Port in Victoria, originally designed to meet the automotive demand in Victoria and South Australia.

800 jobs will go at Port Kembla, 200 at Western Port and another 400 from local contractors.  The other Australian steelmaker OneSteel has also recently announced a workforce reduction of 400 jobs.

This announcement has reignited the 20th Century free trade versus protectionist economic and political debate. Labor backbenchers and the Greens want a Parliamentary enquiry. The Prime Minister (Julia Gillard) reportedly initially agreed, then, perhaps smelling trouble, demurred. No doubt 'Sir Humphrey' lurks not far back in the shadows. 

 

 

So what has and hasn't changed (disregarding a world pandemic presently raging)?

 

Read more: Manufacturing in Australia

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