Conclusion
Carbon Sequestration and Storage is very likely a non-starter as a real solution to climate change and the implications of this for the Garnaut analysis and the CPRS are dire.
For the CPRS to have a real impact on carbon dioxide release, and consequent accelerated climate change, the existing NSW energy dependent economy must seriously contract.
In the absence of CCS and to avoid serious negative economic impacts, the original CPRS concept needs to be castrated by exempting (or issuing free allocations under the cap to them) the largest carbon users in the economy; effectively removing its constraints on carbon dioxide release particularly in the energy and trade exposed sectors. This modified CPRS will discriminate against small-scale domestic industries and consumers, distorting the economy in unpredictable and, very likely, harmful ways.
A viable alternative is to immediately take steps to introduce nuclear electricity generation in NSW (and Australia). This would obviate the need for a CPRS.
Richard McKie
2008/10
Footnotes:
[1] http://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/minerals/resources/coal/coal-industry
[2] Not actually sequestration – this is generally viewed as CO2 generating.
[3]International Energy Agency (IEA) data – quoted in Wikipedia
[4] The atomic weight of carbon (C) is 12 and oxygen (O) 16 so: C + O2 → CO2 and: 12 + 32 → 44 or: 1 tonne → 3.667 tonnes. Different coals have considerable variability in ash (6.5% to 30%) and volatiles (half carbon by weight 20.8% to 37.9%) depending on grade and purpose. If we estimate the carbon content of NSW coal to average around 75% (local) and 90% (export) coal production that year equates to roughly 24.8 million tonnes of carbon burnt locally and 80 million tonnes exported in 2005-6.
[6](517 kPa = 75 lb/in2) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide
[8] U.S. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health