November 2020 Update
The main article, above, was published on the 2nd of September. Since then several of the vaccine developers mentioned have released preliminary Phase 3 results that in each case have been very encouraging. The announcement front runners are Pfizer; Moderna; and Sputnik V with several others not far behind, including the University of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine that is of importance to Australia.
The Australian Government has made deals for four different COVID-19 vaccines from: Pfizer; Novavax; the University of Queensland (UQ); [December addendum: now withdrawn -see above] and the University of Oxford/AstraZeneca.
Earlier this month the Australian company CSL began production of the University of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, awaiting confirmation of trials in the UK and elsewhere, that are needed for certification. The good news being that it is easily distributed; seems to be safe; offer good protection; and to work well on the elderly.
I the past few days, South Australia discovered a quarantine breach but seems to have limited the impact to a handful - all contact traced and tested. The only other places where there are active cases in Australia are in the quarantine hotels. So far there have been 907 deaths due to COVID-19 in Australia, 819 of these in Victoria, that is now out of lock-down with no new deaths this month.
While safety can still be tested this makes further trials in Australia next to useless to test for efficacy. The double-blind process involves thousands of volunteers only half of who receive the real vaccine and the other half a placebo such that those giving and receiving the injection do not know which is which. Hopefully a large number will then go about and serendipitously get infected. When there are a significant number of infected patients among the volunteers the secret of who got the vaccine can then be revealed and it is hoped that all or most the severe cases were among the placebo group. But it is obviously unethical to deliberately infect the participants as a small proportion of the placebo group are likely to be killed as a result. So testing has to be done where there are high numbers of cases, for example: in the UK, that has amongst the highest rates of infection in the world.
Like Sputnik V the Pfizer vaccine must be stored at very low temperature. Reportedly this could be a potential problem for Australia as the only local vaccine manufacturer, CSL, is presently unable to manufacture an mRNA vaccine and the requirement for very low temperature transport and distribution could be an issue.
Even in the case of a more robust vaccine there is a huge logistics challenge. To achieve 'herd immunity' using a vaccine will require between 62% and 78% of the population to be inoculated in addition to anyone at particular risk of being exposed - like healthcare and tourism workers and international travellers. This translates to a minimum of 15.5 million Australians. Given our willingness to embrace vaccination and well organised universal health services it's doable. But it will take some time, certainly well into next year or even the next.
When the first vaccine is certified the question then becomes: 'who will be lining up for a COVID-19 vaccination?'
My own 'pub test' observations in Sydney have been that most, if not all, of my acquaintances will line up as soon as a vaccine is available (presumably free - covered by Medicare). Yet despite this I know that a small minority of Australians, like those that live around Byron Bay who are already objecting to the immunisation of their children before school, may refuse.
Other countries have a much greater challenge, particularly where there is significant resistance to vaccination.
Apparently, despite almost 2,000 deaths each day and rising, based on a recent poll, over 130 million Americans will refuse vaccination.
The latest GALLUP POLL on American willingness to receive a vaccination against COVID-19 indicates that 42% now say that they would not be willing to accept a vaccine when it becomes available. This is worse than mid year when two thirds said they would.
Less than 60% is well below the proportion needed to get the pandemic under control; to eliminate more deaths and thus repeated lock-downs. So more Americans need to be persuaded to accept a jab or two if the slaughter is not to continue.
Of those Americans who say they would not get vaccinated most gave the rushed timeline for the development as the main reason. Another 26% say they may be vaccinated but want to wait to confirm the vaccine is safe.
Increased hesitancy was most evident among Democratic respondents, over half attributing their loss of confidence in the process to rhetoric around operation 'Warp Speed' and undue haste that they perceived to be about getting President Trump re-elected. This was particularly notable among Black Americans who, paradoxically, are among the hardest hit.
Confusingly President Trump has spoken out against the two media front runners: Pfizer and Moderna, alleging that they deliberately 'went slow' to injure his electoral chances.
Both Pfizer and Moderna have been at pains to deny this was the case, particularly as they made several announcements prior to the election and both are several years ahead of a normal development timeframe. Pfizer has also pointed out that it was well underway weeks before 'Warp Speed' was announced.
Notwithstanding a greater proportion who have lost confidence Democrats as a group are still significantly more likely to get vaccinated than Republicans.
In addition to those who are concerned by the rushed timeline around one in five Republicans distrust vaccines in general, a view shared by many independents.
Yet the alternative of refusing vaccination and waiting to catch it is not a good option. Best estimates suggest that, even with COVID-19 running rampant, something less than a tenth of the US population has so far been exposed. Nine tenths to go and over a quarter of a million dead to date.
So why are so many Americans opposed to vaccination?
The most obvious reason is religious fundamentalism, a contagion of the mind that's turning out to be more deadly than any single virus or bacterium.
The New York Times has articles on the relationship between anti-vaxxers and religious fundamentalism going back over decades - dating back as far as the polio epidemic. For example, they were again worried on March 9, 2019, before the present pandemic, “The Real Horror of the Anti-Vaxxers (This isn’t just a public health crisis. It’s a public sanity one)”.
THE LANCET also recently published an article on anti-vaxxers and the contribution of social media: “The online anti-vaccine movement in the age of COVID-19” that raises the alarm and also references a more technical paper in Nature: “The online competition between pro- and anti-vaccination views” that concluded that “although smaller in overall size, anti-vaccination clusters manage to become highly entangled with undecided clusters in the main online network, whereas pro-vaccination clusters are more peripheral”.
So on-line it’s the extreme right like: QAnon; the Bible/Tora and Koran spruiking zealots; cults like Falun Gong; and the 'loony left': those, who believe in the power of crystals; that radiation caused viruses; and conspiracies by Big Pharma or Microsoft.
In the end it’s about a lack of education in science. Without it there’s nothing but blind faith in whichever influencer; shock-jock; Preacher; or Guru takes one’s fancy. So don’t take my word for it either - do a little research (confirmed by reputable scientific journals - not on unaccredited social Media).
Weigh everything.