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As the energy is essentially free, renewable electricity costs, like those of nuclear electricity, are almost entirely dependent on the up-front construction costs and the method of financing these.  Minimising the initial investment, relative to the expected energy yield, is critical to commercial viability.  But revenue is also dependent on when, and where, the energy can be delivered to meet the demand patterns of energy consumers.

For example, if it requires four times the capital investment in equipment to extract one megawatt hour (1 MWh) of useable electricity from sunlight, as compared to extracting it from wind, engineers need to find ways of quartering the cost of solar capture and conversion equipment; or increasing the energy converted to electricity fourfold; to make solar directly competitive.

Similarly if a technology produces electricity when consumers don’t want it; or produces it so far from the consumer that most of it is lost in transmission; then the revenue available will be proportionately less than a similar investment that better matches demand; or is located close to where it is consumed.

 

In most developed nations, including Australia, electricity is a traded product with the market price fluctuating from hour to hour; day to day; season to season; in five minute intervals, according to supply and demand.

 

Without government intervention in the market, supply and demand determines the return that is available to an investment; while the engineering solution and qualities of the resource determine the energy that a particular investment can theoretically deliver.

 

Before intervention, current renewable technologies, with the exception of hydro- electricity, are substantially less competitive, in terms of return on investment, than fossil fuels or nuclear electricity.  It follows that wherever alternatives are in use there are other factors at play: such as the cost or practicality of a grid connection; or a government intervention in support of renewables.

In Australian electricity markets this intervention takes the form of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) described later. Other governments have other instruments such as cap and trade carbon reduction schemes; carbon taxes; energy buy-back schemes; and tax breaks; to achieve similar ends.

 

In Australia grid losses are of particular concern. Australia’s population of just over 21 million is highly concentrated in a few large cities; just eight cities accounting for over 70% of the population. The largest Sydney; Melbourne; Brisbane; Perth and Adelaide account for 63% but are separated by distances of between 670 and 3,600 km; ‘as the crow flies’. This is similar to the continental USA and a substantially greater area than the entire EEC.

Transmitting electricity over such distances results in significant losses.  The market price received by a generator is therefore influenced by transmission costs and the point on the grid into which electricity generated is injected.  A renewable energy project remote from the points of high demand will receive a lower price than one adjacent. 

Very high voltage DC (HVDC) technology can reduce the net grid loss problem over long distances, and this is in use for links to Tasmania and South Australia, but it adds at least two costly voltage translations and the additional capital cost, together with the low capacity factor of wind and solar, precludes its use in most, if not all renewables dedicated situations.

 

Even with the present substantial and probably increasing REC cross-subsidies from electricity consumers, transmission factors limit the economic distance an exploitable wind or solar resource can be from the main electricity grid and electricity consumers.

 

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Travel

USA - middle bits

 

 

 

 

 

In September and October 2017 Wendy and I took another trip to the United States where we wanted to see some of the 'middle bits'.  Travel notes from earlier visits to the East coast and West Coast can also be found on this website.

For over six weeks we travelled through a dozen states and stayed for a night or more in 20 different cities, towns or locations. This involved six domestic flights for the longer legs; five car hires and many thousands of miles of driving on America's excellent National Highways and in between on many not so excellent local roads and streets.

We had decided to start in Chicago and 'head on down south' to New Orleans via: Tennessee; Georgia; Louisiana; and South Carolina. From there we would head west to: Texas; New Mexico; Arizona; Utah and Nevada; then to Los Angeles and home.  That's only a dozen states - so there are still lots of 'middle bits' left to be seen.

During the trip, disaster, in the form of three hurricanes and a mass shooting, seemed to precede us by a couple of days.

The United States is a fascinating country that has so much history, culture and language in common with us that it's extremely accessible. So these notes have turned out to be long and could easily have been much longer.

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Fiction, Recollections & News

The Greatest Aviation Mystery of All Time

 

 

The search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 was finally called off in the first week of June 2018.

The flight's disappearance on the morning of 8 March 2014 has been described as the greatest aviation mystery of all time, surpassing the disappearance of Amelia Earhart in 1937.  Whether or no it now holds that record, the fruitless four year search for the missing plane is certainly the most costly in aviation history and MH370 has already spawned more conspiracy theories than the assassination of JFK; the disappearance of Australian PM Harold Holt; and the death of the former Princess Diana of Wales; combined.

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Opinions and Philosophy

A new political dawn

 

 

The State election on 26th March saw a crushing political defeat for the Australian Labor Party in New South Wales. Both sides of politics are still coming to terms with the magnitude of this change.  On the Labor side internal recriminations seem to have spread beyond NSW.  The Coalition now seem to have an assured eight and probably twelve years, or more, to carry out their agenda.

On April 3, following the advice of the Executive Council, the Lieutenant-Governor of New South Wales, gave effect to an Order to restructure the NSW Public Service. Read more...

It remains to be seen how the restructured agencies will go about the business of rebuilding the State.

 

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